07/18/08 10:00 AM ET
An early eye toward awards season
MLB.com reporters predict the big winners at All-Star break
By Tom Singer / MLB.com

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Baseball's code is to yank breakout performers back to the pack (that's why most statistics are called averages), like a frisky calf getting roped.
Those who violate the code, who are able to sustain season-long excellence, usually take home the spoils. Herewith, our midseason look at who they will be, based on a survey of MLB.com reporters. As for parameters, the best answer is the one given an inquiring reporter who asked whether he was voting for half-season winners or predicting who will get the prize at the end of the season: Both. These are the leaders in the clubhouse for MLB's top honors.Most Valuable Player
American League1. JOSH HAMILTON, RANGERS (Vote percentage: 83): Everyone's adopted son or brother has been the antidote to baseball's less savory story lines (Roger Clemens saga, etc.). Hamilton has 25 more RBIs than anyone else in the league, and those 95 ribbies rank as the fifth-highest total ever at an All-Star break. Value? He is already the first Texas player in history to hit two game-winning ninth-inning homers in the same season. Twins reporter Kelly Thesier: "The feel-good story of the year and perhaps the decade."
2. Jermaine Dye, White Sox (8%): Teammate Carlos Quentin got the early props, but he's been on a tear to keep Chicago on top of the Central Division. 3. Joe Mauer, Twins (4%): There have to be reasons for Minnesota's surprising contention, and he is the biggest. National League1. CHASE UTLEY, PHILLIES (39%): A nod to his destiny to become the Phillies' third different MVP in three seasons? No, recognition of how he carried the team to the top of the East (19 homers and 49 RBIs through May) before Ryan Howard began chipping in. Utley also stands out as the only bona fide candidate doing it on a contender.
2. Lance Berkman, Astros (30%): His ridiculous May (.471 with nine homers and 22 RBIs) clearly left a big impression. But he's an outsider, at best. 3. Chipper Jones, Braves (18%): If the Braves regroup and make a run, you know it will be because Jones won't let them lose.Cy Young Award
American League1. CLIFF LEE, INDIANS (42%): From Triple-A reclamation project to All-Star Game starter in 12 dizzying months, not a bad trip. This award is not for resilience but for performance, and the left-hander scores even bigger there. He is 12-2 (the Indians are 29-51 when Lee does not get a decision) with a 2.31 ERA and better than 5-to-1 strikeouts-to-walk ratio.
2. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels (21%): His 38 saves give him a hand in 67 percent of the Angels' Major League-high 57 wins. One could call it a model contract drive (he is approaching free agency), but K-Rod has been doing this for half a decade; he is two away from his fourth straight 40-save season. 3. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays (17%): A throwback (his seven complete games top every other team's total) throwing well (11-6, 2.71). National League1. EDINSON VOLQUEZ, REDS (39%): It would, of course, be historic if players traded for each other (Hamilton being the other party) each copped a major award with his new team. The 25-year-old right-hander is in contention for pitching's triple crown with his league-leading ERA (2.29), 12 wins and 126 strikeouts. Braves reporter Mark Bowman: "These numbers are great and become ridiculous when you factor in the fact that his home is hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park."
2. Brandon Webb, D-backs (22%): The winner of the '06 award leads the league with 13 wins, and received a total of eight runs' support in his four losses. 3. Tim Lincecum, Giants (18%): Aside from leading the league with 135 strikeouts, the 24-year-old makes the identical case as does the Indians' Lee -- he is 11-2, and the Giants are 29-51 otherwise.Rookie of the Year
American League1. EVAN LONGORIA, RAYS (91%): In retrospect, it is easy to understand why Tampa Bay's decision to option him to the Minors out of Spring Training was so controversial. For the record, the Rays were still in their customary East basement when he was finally promoted, on April 12. His 16 homers lead AL rookies.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (9%): His speed on the bases (35 steals) and in the outfield has given the Sox an entire new dimension. 3. David Murphy, Rangers (-): For the record, our panel didn't cast a vote for anyone other than Longoria or Ellsbury (as reflected by the above percentages), but we can't overlook someone who has more RBIs than even Longoria (60 to 53). National League1. GEOVANY SOTO, CUBS (70%): His bat (.288 average, 16 homers, 56 RBIs) and young leadership behind the plate have been uncommonly instrumental to the Cubs' standing. All last season, Chicago's five catchers combined to produce 12 homers and 66 RBIs. Angels reporter Lyle Spencer: "Big factor in Cubs' rise, with more overall value than [Kosuke] Fukudome (who scored five percent)."
2. Jair Jurrjens, Braves (9%): His strong 9-4 performance (3.00 ERA) has kept the Braves afloat by mitigating the losses of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. 3. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs (5%): Introduced himself with that dramatic ninth-inning homer on Opening Day, and has remained a steady, disciplined contributor to Cubs' quest.
Manager of the Year
America League1. JOE MADDON, RAYS (94%): Our most overwhelming choice, and who can question it? He had the Rays in first place for 32 days and, just looking at a modest goal, even a .500 season would be an accomplishment for a club whose previous high-water mark, if you want to call it that, is 21 below. Athletics reporter Mychael Urban: "Just give it to him right now."
2. Ron Gardenhire, Twins (6%): Minnesota has a better lineage but, after an offseason of shedding, the Twins had the same prospects as did the Rays. And now Gardenhire has led them to the same opportunity. 3. Ron Washington, Rangers (-): Another "bonus" pick (see Murphy). Deftly marshaled the Rangers from a club-worst 7-16 start to .500 three weeks later. National League1. TONY LA RUSSA, CARDINALS (50%): No stranger to this award (1983-88-92 in the AL, 2002 with the Cards) and many believe he's done his best work yet with a club that, on paper, shouldn't be a contender. National reporter Jim Molony: "Edges Fredi Gonzalez with perhaps the most impressive managerial performance of his career."
2. Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins (23%): Has performed a masterful juggling act (Marlins have already gone through 38 players) to keep Florida in surprising contention. 3. Lou Piniella, Cubs (18%): Managers of teams expected to win seldom get backing for this award, but trying to overcome the Cubs' checkered past is it own challenge.Comeback Player of the Year
American League1. MILTON BRADLEY, RANGERS (33%): Recovered all the way to All-Star starter from admittedly the rarest of injuries -- a blown-out ACL sustained during an argument with an umpire.
2. Lee (22%): He had five wins in 2007, and matched that before April was out. 3. Joe Crede, White Sox (17%): From crippling bad back to comeback? His 16 homers and 49 RBIs powerfully endorse that. National League1. KERRY WOOD, CUBS (41%): Has reinvented himself, a la Smoltz, to pick up 24 saves after being shackled by injuries to five wins in the previous three seasons; heck, he has almost matched that out of the bullpen this season, having won four.
2. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals (18%): He wasn't even taken off the free-agent heap until mid-March, and now is 11-2 to hold up the house of Cards. 3. Jorge Cantu, Marlins (12%): A non-roster invitee into the Marlins' Spring Training camp, Cantu is one of the biggest Fish with 18 homers and 54 RBIs as the regular third baseman.Tom Singer is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.











